India, China cut electricity emissions growth, mitigating U.S. coal overdrive

SINGAPORE, Jan 27 (Reuters) – India and China cut emissions from electricity generation by accelerating clean energy deployment, researchers say, offsetting growing coal use in the U.S. and capping global growth in pollutants linked to climate change.

Power sector emissions by China and India, the world’s top coal users who accounted for 93% of the rise in carbon dioxide discharges in the decade through 2024, declined simultaneously for the first time in 52 years, according to a report by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) this month.

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“The fall in emissions in China and India in 2025 is a sign of things to come, as both countries added a record amount of new clean-power generation last year, which was more than sufficient to meet rising demand,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA, an independent research group registered in Finland.

CHINA, INDIA POWER EMISSIONS FALL

China’s power sector emissions fell by 40 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), or 0.7% annually in 2025, while discharges by Indian utilities declined 38 million tCO2e, or 4.1%, in the 11 months to the end of November, according to estimates from energy think-tank Ember compiled based on monthly government statistics.

That offset a 55.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) rise in annual U.S. emissions after an annual 13.1% increase in coal-fired power output drove U.S. power plant emissions 3.3% higher in 2025, the fastest this century, the estimates showed, helping global emissions stay largely flat.

Power plant emissions rose 3.4% in China and 4.4% in India annually on average over the 10 years to 2024, but fell 2.4% in the U.S. The three countries account for 60% of the world’s power sector emissions, which make up about 35% of all polluting discharges linked to climate change.

COAL OUTLOOK

China’s coal use is set to decline gradually this decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual coal report in December, helping emissions from power generation plateau in the coming years.

In India, however, while record renewables additions and marginal growth in power demand helped New Delhi suppress coal use this year, the IEA expects the country to continue depending on coal.

“Although coal-fired power generation declines in 2025, a moderate increase in coal consumption for power generation is nevertheless expected … due to a steady rise in electricity demand,” the IEA said.

In the U.S., the agency expects higher costs to reduce coal demand by 6% in the years until 2030 despite policy incentives by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and a slowdown in coal plant closures.